China's 2024 Economic "Half-Year Report" Released: 5% Growth Rate Still Leads Globally

　　Steady Progress Amid Stability

　　China's 2024 economic "half-year report" was released recently. According to preliminary calculations by the National Bureau of Statistics, GDP in the first half of this year exceeded 60 trillion yuan, reaching 61.6836 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% at constant prices. By quarter, GDP grew 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter and 4.7% in the second quarter.

　　In the first half of the year, the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment rose markedly, and the continued deepening of domestic structural adjustment brought new challenges to economic development. However, factors such as the sustained release of the effects of macro policies, a modest recovery in external demand, and the accelerated development of new quality productive forces also formed new support. How should China's economic performance in the first half of this year be assessed? What are the highlights? Reporters conducted interviews on these questions.

　　China's economy has continued its recovery and improvement trend, showing the characteristics of overall stability, structural optimization, and quality improvement

　　To observe the state of economic operations, one usually looks at four major macroeconomic indicators: economic growth, employment, prices, and the international balance of payments. Data show that economic growth was generally stable, and the 5% growth rate will remain a global leader; the employment situation was generally stable, with the average surveyed urban unemployment rate in the first half of the year at 5.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year; the price level recovered moderately, with the consumer price index up 0.1% year-on-year in the first half, including a 0.3% increase in the second quarter; and the international balance of payments was basically balanced, with the scale of imports and exports hitting a record high for the same period and foreign exchange reserves stable at more than 3.2 trillion US dollars.

　　"In the first half of the year, China's economy continued its recovery and improvement trend, showing the characteristics of overall stability, structural optimization, and quality improvement," Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Institute for Development Planning at Tsinghua University, told reporters. Against the backdrop of a complex and severe external environment compounded by prominent domestic structural and cyclical contradictions, this report card was hard-won.

　　Looking at demand, the "troika" of consumption, investment, and net exports continued to improve. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in the first half of the year, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 23.5969 trillion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year. Retail sales of services rose 7.5% year-on-year; national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24.5391 trillion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year, or 8.5% after excluding real estate development investment; and total goods imports and exports reached 21.1688 trillion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year.

　　In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 60.5% to economic growth, driving GDP growth by 3 percentage points. "Since the beginning of this year, a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption have continued to exert force and show results, consumption potential has been continuously released, service consumption has grown well, consumer demand has continued to recover, and its role as the main driver of economic growth has been significant," said Zhao Tonglu, director of the Department of National Accounts of the National Bureau of Statistics.

　　Looking at supply, the three industries grew steadily, and production supply increased steadily. In the first half of the year, the agricultural production situation was stable, the summer grain harvest was bumper, livestock production was stable, and the value added of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery rose 3.7% year-on-year, driving economic growth by 0.2 percentage points. Industrial production grew relatively fast, with value added of industry up 6.0% year-on-year, driving economic growth by 1.9 percentage points. The service sector continued to recover; information transmission, software, and information technology services and leasing and business services maintained relatively rapid development momentum, with value added up 11.9% and 9.8% year-on-year respectively, together driving economic growth by 1.0 percentage point; transportation, warehousing, and postal services and accommodation and catering, among holiday-economy-related industries, developed relatively well, with value added up 6.9% and 6.6% year-on-year respectively, together driving economic growth by 0.4 percentage points.

　　Since the beginning of this year, the central government has introduced a series of macroeconomic regulation measures. Dong Yu believes that macro policies were launched early, and proactive measures such as large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, adjustment and optimization of real estate policies, and the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds played a positive role in promoting stable economic operation and guiding industrial transformation and upgrading.

　　Policies to expand domestic demand continued to intensify, and demand for equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods is gradually being released, driving relatively rapid growth in production of related equipment and benefiting multiple key industries. Driven by the large-scale equipment renewal policy, investment in purchases of equipment and tools rose 17.3% year-on-year in the first half, driving fixed asset investment growth by 2.1 percentage points, with a contribution rate of 54.8%; investment in manufacturing technological transformation rose 10.0%, 0.5 percentage points higher than manufacturing investment. The consumer goods trade-in policy guided the orderly release of residents' consumption potential and played a certain "catalytic" role in driving growth in durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances. In the first half of the year, retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment by units above the designated size rose 3.1% year-on-year, 2.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year.

　　"In the next stage, we must firm up development confidence and see the strong resilience, huge potential, and favorable support of economic development; we must also adhere to bottom-line thinking, fully estimate the difficulties, challenges, and uncertainties in development, adhere to seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing the new before abolishing the old, better coordinate stabilizing growth and enhancing staying power, coordinate expanding domestic demand and deepening supply-side structural reform, coordinate development and security, further implement macro policies well, make precise efforts, sustain efforts, and form synergy, and promote sustained and healthy economic development," said the spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics.

　　The shift toward "new" and "green" is evident, and the scale of foreign trade hit a new high

　　While China's economic fundamentals remained sound, the quality of economic development continued to improve. In the first half of the year, industrial production above designated size nationwide continued the relatively rapid growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year, exports of industrial products accelerated month by month, corporate profits maintained growth, the pace of high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing accelerated, high-quality development continued to advance, and the industrial economy generally maintained a stable and improving trend.

　　"In the industrial sector, the shift toward 'new' and 'green' is evident. Represented by the relatively high growth rates of production and investment in high-tech manufacturing, in the first half of the year, value added of high-tech manufacturing above designated size rose 8.7% year-on-year, accounting for 15.8% of the value added of industry above designated size; investment in high-tech industries rose 10.6% year-on-year, 6.7 percentage points higher than total investment," Dong Yu said.

　　Smart and green new products such as 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and integrated circuits performed impressively, with output all maintaining double-digit growth; hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power generation above designated size together rose 13.4% year-on-year, and their share of electricity generation above designated size increased; energy consumption per unit of GDP continued to decline... If the quantity of growth reflects the "stability" of economic operations, then the effect of transformation and the quality of development reveal more of the "progress" side.

　　"This shows that China's economy will firmly follow the path of high-quality development. Some new pillar industries have already occupied an increasingly important position in the national economy, and there are good growth opportunities in frontier areas around new quality productive forces. China is also pursuing more balanced development, promoting economic growth while balancing the relationship between the economy and people's livelihood, and between the economy and ecology," Dong Yu said.

　　The scale of foreign trade hit a new high. China's foreign trade scale in the first half of the year exceeded 21 trillion yuan for the first time, and the growth rate of imports and exports accelerated quarter by quarter, with growth of 7.4% in the second quarter, 2.5 percentage points and 5.7 percentage points higher than the first quarter and the fourth quarter of last year respectively, further consolidating the improving momentum of foreign trade.

　　Looking at exports, China's total export value in the first half of the year was 12.13 trillion yuan, up 6.9%. Among them, mechanical and electrical products accounted for nearly 60% of exports, and exports of automatic data processing equipment and parts, integrated circuits, and automobiles rose 10.3%, 25.6%, and 22.2% respectively.

　　Looking at imports, China's total import value in the first half of the year was 9.04 trillion yuan, up 5.2%. Among them, imports of mechanical and electrical products were 3.25 trillion yuan, up 10.1%; imports of major bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal, and natural gas increased.

　　"The outstanding import and export performance in the first half of this year reflects the recovery of the world economy, the steady progress of China's economy, and the resilience of foreign trade," Zhang Xiaotao, dean of the School of International Trade and Economics at the Central University of Finance and Economics, told reporters. The relatively fast export growth reflects improved external demand and the significant advantages of Chinese manufacturing. China has a complete range of industrial categories, and labor-intensive goods, mechanical and electrical products, and the "new three" all show strong competitiveness. The relatively fast import growth reflects the continued recovery of domestic demand, which has generated strong demand for mineral resources and energy products, manufacturing intermediate goods, and final consumer goods.

　　Foreign trade development still requires vigilance in times of peace. The recovery of the world economy still faces instability, and trade protectionism, geopolitical factors, and others bring uncertainty to global trade activities, and China's foreign trade development faces unprecedented challenges.

　　"As domestic enterprises actively adjust and respond, various policies to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment are introduced, and the dividends of China's institutional opening-up are gradually released, China's position, influence, and competitiveness in the global division of labor and commodity production remain solid," Zhang Xiaotao said.

The fundamentals of stable economic operation and long-term improvement have not changed, the general trend of high-quality development has not changed, and there is confidence and a foundation for achieving the full-year development targets

　　To take the pulse of China's economy, one must see both the "shape" of short-term fluctuations and the "trend" of long-term development.

　　"In the short term, the slowdown in economic growth in the second quarter was affected by short-term factors such as extreme weather and frequent rainstorm and flood disasters, and also reflected the increasing difficulties and challenges in current economic operations, especially the prominent problem of insufficient effective domestic demand and the insufficient smoothness of the domestic circulation," said the spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics. However, the fundamentals of stable economic operation and long-term improvement have not changed, and the general trend of high-quality development has not changed.

　　From the perspective of supply support, China's summer harvest of grain and oil crops was again bumper, providing favorable conditions for promoting stable economic operation and safeguarding and improving people's livelihood. As the foundation of the real economy, manufacturing has continued to expand in scale, steadily increase its share, and continuously optimize its structure, and the ability to safeguard important industrial and supply chains has strengthened, which is both a highlight of economic operations in the first half of the year and an important support for stable growth in the second half.

　　From the perspective of demand support, the world economy is recovering moderately, some major economies have entered a restocking cycle, and the upward cycle of industries such as consumer electronics is expected to continue, which is conducive to improving China's external demand. At the same time, China's residents have huge potential demand for food, clothing, housing, transportation, and spiritual and cultural needs, and the summer vacation and the "National Day" long holiday will also help drive consumption recovery. There is still great room for investment in weak areas, weak links, and new areas and new tracks, and the accelerated issuance and construction of "two major" projects (implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas) will also help drive investment growth.

　　From the perspective of momentum support, the pace of transformation and upgrading of China's traditional industries has accelerated, and strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and high-end equipment manufacturing have continued to grow, helping to offset downward pressure and strengthen upward momentum. Development vitality in areas such as new forms of consumption and new infrastructure is also being continuously released.

　　From the perspective of policy support, the effects of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in policies are constantly emerging, and special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds issued earlier are gradually being converted into physical workloads. Strengthening policy coordination and comprehensive measures will continue to form policy synergy and provide favorable policy conditions for stable economic operation.

　　The shape fluctuates, but the trend remains positive. On July 16, the International Monetary Fund released its World Economic Outlook report, raising its forecast for China's economic growth this year to 5%, 0.4 percentage points higher than its April forecast.

　　"We believe China still has considerable policy space," said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, noting that although the economy faces some challenges, China has the ability to take necessary measures to boost the economy, some of which have already begun to have a positive impact.

　　"At present, China's economy is generally in a stage of momentum transformation, and the problem of insufficient effective demand is prominent. We must maintain strategic resolve, continue to accelerate the pace of economic transformation and upgrading, accelerate the development of new quality productive forces, accelerate the cultivation of new pillar industries, accelerate the transformation of old and new growth drivers, and inject vitality and momentum into economic development. At the same time, we must further comprehensively deepen reform, remove bottlenecks and blockages that constrain economic development, and place expectation management in a prominently important position in macroeconomic regulation, with all policies working in the same direction, so as to continuously improve expectations and enhance confidence," Dong Yu said.

　　Riding the wind and breaking the waves, the future is promising. In the first half of the year, China's economy withstood pressure in the global economy and played an important role as a "stabilizer" and "power source." Based on the foundation laid in the "first half," together with the strong momentum continuously injected by further comprehensively deepening reform to promote high-quality development, China has the determination, ability, and conditions to continue promoting effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy and to achieve the full-year development targets.