Forecast Exceedance Levels Increase in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River; Yangtze River Water Resources Commission Holds Consultation to Optimize Three Gorges Dispatch Plan

2024-07-04 2029 0人评论

According to the website of the Ministry of Water Resources, on July 3, Wu Daoxi, Secretary-General of the Yangtze River Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters and Deputy Director of the Yangtze River Water Resources Commission, chaired the daily consultation on individual flood events, analyzed and assessed the rainfall and hydrological situation, and further arranged and deployed key work on the operation of important reservoirs and flood defense. Commission leader Ren Hongmei attended the consultation.

  Affected by sustained heavy rainfall and inflows from the main stream and tributaries, inflows to the upper Yangtze River and the Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake basins have increased compared with yesterday's forecast. Multiple stations in the two-lake system, Chaohu Lake, Shuiyang River, and Chuhe River basins exceed warning levels. The main stream reaches below Lianhuatang in the middle and lower reaches and the two lake areas remain above warning levels across the board and are trending upward. It is expected that water levels at the main stream control stations of the middle and lower Yangtze River and the outlets of the two lakes will successively peak on July 5 and 6. Rolling forecasts put the peak flood levels at Lianhuatang, Hankou, Hukou, and Datong at 34.1 meters, 27.9 meters, 21.7 meters, and 15.8 meters, respectively. According to hydrological and meteorological forecasts, from July 3 to 11, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will enter a rainfall interval period, and the rain belt will shift westward and northward to the upper Yangtze River and the upper and middle reaches of the Han River, with inflows to the upper Yangtze River increasing somewhat.

  The consultation noted that the earlier Yangtze River flood defense work, especially the joint operation of basin water projects, has achieved notable results. At present, water levels in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have not yet peaked, the basin's rainfall and hydrological situation has changed, and the later development of the flood situation carries strong uncertainty. General dangers on embankments and small and medium-sized reservoirs in the basin are gradually emerging and have been effectively rescued and protected, but high vigilance is still required. All relevant departments and units must firmly establish bottom-line thinking and consistently carry out all flood defense work.

  First, scientifically and precisely formulate a plan for drawing down the Three Gorges Reservoir, make refined forecasts of inflows to the upper Yangtze River, conduct rolling analysis and assessment based on the recession trends of Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake, seize the time window of the rainfall interval period and the recession period of the two lakes, and promptly draw down the reservoir after the highest water level at Lianhuatang occurs, so as to avoid a secondary flood peak process exceeding the first peak level caused by the drawdown operation and to prepare for possible subsequent floods.

  Second, guide other reservoirs in the basin to cooperate with the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, dynamically carry out flood control operation of the Jinsha River cascade and Wu River cascade, and guide the optimization of operation during the recession period of reservoirs in the two-lake system and the Lushui Reservoir.

  Third, continue to tighten and consolidate local responsibilities, and urge effective work in dike patrols and hazard inspections, emergency rescue, preparation for the use of floodplain polders, and safe flood passage of small and medium-sized reservoirs, especially those with defects. Fourth, continue to make preparations for major floods, strengthen hydrological monitoring, forecasting, and early warning, conduct rolling assessments of the later flood situation, promptly review and summarize the rainfall, hydrological, and operation processes, and earnestly carry out publicity of achievements and public opinion guidance. Fifth, further strictly enforce flood control work discipline and give play to the safeguard role of discipline inspection and supervision.

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