Industry Analysis: China's Steel Market Rises Again

2013-08-13 667 0人评论
       Supply has slightly contracted and inventory pressure has eased somewhat, pushing China's spot steel market upward again. However, high temperatures in many parts of the country and weakening growth in related downstream industries have both weighed on the release of demand in the steel market. With upward and downward factors offsetting each other, the steel market will remain in a consolidation phase where it is "hard to rise and hard to fall."

  According to the latest market report provided by a well-known domestic steel information agency, domestic spot steel prices rose again in the past week, with an average increase of about 0.93%. Along with the continued strength of rebar futures and the relatively reduced pressure from spot steel inventories in various regional markets, traders kept pushing spot steel prices higher.

  According to analysis, in the plate market, composite prices showed some increase. Market participants believe that hot weather has actually kept downstream demand in a persistently weak state, but considering that resource pressure in various regions is not too great, traders' confidence has strengthened somewhat, and they have begun to test the waters by pushing up quotations. In fact, the true mindset of most traders remains cautious and wait-and-see, and there is some room for bargaining in actual transactions. The hot-rolled coil market also moved upward steadily, with increases in Guangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing and other markets relatively notable, reaching 40 yuan to 80 yuan per ton on a weekly basis. Many traders reported that although prices rose, downstream demand was average and selling goods in the market was rather difficult, with wait-and-see sentiment still relatively strong overall.

  In the construction steel market, prices also rose across the board. According to feedback from traders, sustained high temperatures in many parts of the country have curbed procurement at construction sites, with few transactions concluded at high prices in the market while low-price transactions were still acceptable. At present, inventory pressure in the market is not great, and supply of some specifications is even somewhat tight. Such short-term and localized factors will provide some support to the market, though it is not very solid.

  The iron ore market, which is easy to rise but hard to fall, always rises whenever it can, keeping the steel industry's "cost string" pulled very tight. According to a report by "Xiben New Line," in the domestic ore market, iron concentrate prices in Hebei rose slightly, by about 10 yuan per ton on a weekly basis, with transactions improving somewhat. Imported ore prices rose sharply, with 63.5% grade Indian fines quoted at about $134.75 per ton, up $3.25 in a week; the Platts 62% iron ore index stood at $133.5 per ton, up $3.75 in a week. Recently, many steel mills have successively increased purchases of foreign ore to replenish inventories, imported ore quotations have been active, and prices have risen noticeably.

  Analysts at relevant institutions believe that the current rise in steel prices is partly based on reduced supply. According to relevant statistics, China's average daily crude steel output in July fell by more than 2% month on month, marking the third consecutive month of decline. However, high temperatures in many places have curbed the release of downstream demand, and after steel prices managed to rise, transactions were generally sluggish, with some markets beginning to stabilize after the increase. Later, export orders at some steel mills may also decline, which would offset part of the positive effect of reduced supply. In the short term, the steel market will still be dominated by consolidation, with a low probability of either sharp rises or sharp falls.

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