Cement Industry Profits May Surprise in Q3

2013-08-09 545 0人评论

       After entering July, affected by factors such as production restrictions and power rationing, the cement industry has seen price increases during the off-season.

  The reporter noted that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently announced the first batch of industrial enterprises to eliminate outdated production capacity this year, with 92.75 million tons of outdated cement capacity eliminated, the largest among 19 industries. Cement prices are sensitive to supply changes. In the second half of 2010, various regions implemented measures such as power rationing to reduce consumption and eliminate outdated production capacity. Affected by power rationing, cement prices rose from 350 yuan/ton in July to 410 yuan/ton by the end of the year, an increase of more than 16%, and the average increase in the cement industry in the secondary market was 30%.

  Analyst Liu Yuanrui of Changjiang Securities told the reporter that the fundamental risks in the cement industry are relatively small. The continued price increase in the off-season is mainly due to the rapid destocking brought about by power rationing. Considering the year-on-year decline in coal prices, the performance of East China cement companies in the third quarter is expected to show high growth. From a valuation perspective, there are no out-of-season factors in cement industry demand yet. Investors may pay attention to Conch Cement, Qilianshan, Huaxin Cement, and Jiangxi Cement.

  According to WIND data, among the 14 cement companies that have published interim reports, those with a year-on-year increase in net profit of more than 100% include Shangfeng Cement (1306.16%), Qilianshan (300%), Huaxin Cement, Jiangxi Cement, and Sichuan Shuangma. Meanwhile, Jidong Cement, Tongli Cement, Tianshan Shares, and Tapai Group saw their interim net profit decline by no less than 50% year on year. In addition, BBMG Corporation's interim net profit fell by about 0%—15%.

  As of the close on Wednesday, among the 19 cement companies in the two markets, the 10 with the smallest A-share circulating market value were ST Shitou, Chaodong Shares, Fujian Cement, Tongli Cement, Qinling Cement, Jianfeng Group, Ningxia Building Materials, Sichuan Shuangma, Jiangxi Cement, and Shangfeng Cement. The top ten cement companies by cumulative turnover in the past two months were Shangfeng Cement (213%), Chaodong Shares (200%), Sichuan Shuangma (186%), Fujian Cement (167%), Jianfeng Group (120%), Qilianshan (91%), Qinling Cement (78%), Jiangxi Cement (77%), Ningxia Building Materials (77%), and Huaxin Cement (60%).

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