“保底”预期使市场风格逐渐转变。7月份宏观政策面开始强调经济增长保底。
这使市场找到了关注周期股的理由。机械板块内,周期股我们继续建议关注铁路设备,仍然相信铁路建设仍是拉动宏观经济的重要手段。同时,仍然建议回避房地产产业链,对应到机械行业即工程机械相关行业。寄希望于地产的大规模复苏将会带来更严厉的调控政策。另外,工程机械产能过剩,金融杠杆的收缩这两个负面因素需要长时间消化。房地产基建的复苏带来的正向拉动远不足以抗衡上述两个因素带来的负向拉动。
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