The National Bureau of Statistics will release national economic data for the first half of the year on the 15th. Multiple institutions predict that the economy will be generally stable in June. Among them, industrial production will improve, with single-month industrial profits rebounding slightly. Supported by earlier improvements in financing and policies such as allowing special bonds to be used as project capital, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will pick up. As the effects of the shifted "May Day" holiday fade, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods may fluctuate slightly, but auto sales continued to recover in June, providing support for overall retail sales growth.

Regarding industrial production, Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, believes that the growth rate of industrial value-added rebounded at a low level in June, representing a short-term improvement in industrial production. Since June, output from key steel enterprises has increased, and the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups has risen. As the growth rate of industrial value-added fell by 0.8 percentage points in June last year, the base declined significantly, and the growth rate in the same period this year may rebound from a low level to 5.7%. After the second quarter, tax reduction policies were implemented, with substantial tax cuts for the manufacturing sector, helping to boost market confidence.

"In May, with both industrial production and prices slowing, industrial profits achieved positive growth, mainly due to tax and fee reductions. Driven by tax and fee reductions, single-month industrial profits are expected to rebound slightly in June," said Zhang Wenlang, chief macro analyst at Everbright Securities.

Regarding investment, Qin Tai, senior macro analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, believes that the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in June may rise slightly by 0.3 percentage points to around 5.9%. Among them, the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) from January to June rebounded to around 4.5%, and is expected to improve further later. Li Chao, chief macro researcher at Huatai Securities, believes that the volume of projects approved by the National Development and Reform Commission has increased significantly year-on-year, with sufficient reserves of infrastructure investment projects in areas such as high-speed rail, airports, and rail transit; local government special bonds also guarantee the funding sources for infrastructure investment. "Overall, we expect that as reserved projects continue to be launched and construction begins, and as the base in the same period last year declines, infrastructure investment growth is expected to show steady improvement in the second and third quarters."

Lian Ping also believes that with the relaxation of local special bond policies, allowing special bonds to be used as capital for eligible major projects, infrastructure investment growth is expected to gradually recover in the future. In addition, Lian Ping pointed out that large-scale tax cuts help improve the operations of manufacturing enterprises, and the acceleration of industrial enterprise profit growth in May may promote the stabilization of manufacturing investment in the future.

Consumption growth may fluctuate slightly. Zhang Wenlang believes that the shifted extended "May Day" holiday pushed May's retail sales year-on-year rebound to 8.6%. After this factor fades, June's retail sales year-on-year may slow slightly to 8.3%. However, in Qin Tai's view, earlier personal income tax cuts and structural VAT reductions are expected to continue supporting consumer demand for goods. In addition, high-frequency data show significant improvement in passenger car retail sales, and June's nominal and real retail sales growth rates are expected to rebound to 9.0% and 6.8%, respectively, up 0.4 percentage points from May.

Institutions believe that with instability in external demand, the importance of domestic demand is more prominent. Therefore, more effective growth-stabilizing policies are needed to stabilize the economy. "From the perspective of various types of demand, consumption is a slow variable, while manufacturing investment is determined by terminal demand, infrastructure investment, real estate investment, and exports. Real estate investment is constrained by housing prices, and regulatory policies are difficult to adjust. Therefore, infrastructure investment is the most important short-term lever for stabilizing the economy," said Yang Yewei, macro analyst at Southwest Securities.