Domestic Building Materials Sector Rally Capped; Nonferrous Metals Fall Across the Board

2013-07-22 762 0人评论
      Nonferrous metals fell across the board, with most returning below their moving average systems; only Shanghai copper still receives some short-term moving average support. Although Bernanke merely repeated old themes without giving new policy signals, weak US housing construction and other data brought real pressure, and the market is expected to remain weak going forward.

  Supported by environmental protection factors and urbanization-related policies, most varieties in the building materials sector rose slightly, except for a small decline in glass. However, we also see that gains are beginning to narrow, with upward momentum coming more from manufacturers' willingness to hold prices firm and generally appearing insufficient. Rebar is expected to form a阶段性 top, and the stimulus effect on coal and coke from import policy adjustments has basically been digested, so opportunities for medium-term short positions should be sought. Shanghai rubber rose, with active trading in recent days and two touches of the limit-up board. Good automobile production and sales data for the first half brought bullish factors to the rubber market and also strengthened bullish confidence, with a higher short-term view.

  Crude oil remains high, while PE and PTA show strong consolidation. Cost factors have kept PE ex-factory prices stable with a slight upward trend, and futures prices have therefore maintained high-level operation and are expected to resume an upward channel; PTA is fluctuating widely near the upper edge of its previous platform, and a possible squeeze may increase market uncertainty. Zhengzhou sugar continued its low-level rebound, with futures prices pausing after touching the upper moving averages; in addition, volume appears insufficient, and repeated fluctuations are expected. Oils and fats rebounded; palm oil and rapeseed oil have not yet broken out of their downward channels, while soybean oil is slightly stronger. Considering that the rebound in US soybeans is still ongoing and Malaysian palm oil has also pulled up from the bottom, these will bring bullish effects to the oils and fats sector; soybean meal and rapeseed meal remain strong, with the trading range continuously moving up along the moving averages.

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