The Western Water Diversion Project refers to a water diversion scheme that transfers abundant water resources from the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to the arid and water-scarce northwestern region. It includes one main line—the "Hongqi River"—and three branch lines—the "Hongyan River," "Mobei River," and "Chunfeng River."
According to the latest optimization results, the total length of the main line is 5,710 kilometers, including 2,581 kilometers of tunnels (preliminary design divides into 308 sections for parallel construction, with an average length of 8.4 kilometers) and 3,129 kilometers of open channels. The elevation gradually decreases from 2,668 meters at the starting point to 1,220 meters at the endpoint, with a drop of 1,448 meters and an average slope of 0.025%. Among them, the section from the Yarlung Zangbo River to the Jinsha River is 663 kilometers with a slope of 0.042%; the section from the Jinsha River to the Yellow River is 1,702 kilometers with a slope of 0.031%. It is estimated that 21 reservoirs will be needed, including 6 with a maximum dam height of 200 to 280 meters, 2 with 100 to 200 meters, and 13 below 100 meters. The lengths of the three branch lines are: Hongyan River 511 kilometers, Mobei River 1,685 kilometers, and Chunfeng River 804 kilometers. Preliminary estimates suggest that the main project investment of the "Hongqi River" is about 4 trillion yuan, with a construction period of about ten years. I. The design of the "Hongqi River" Western Water Diversion Scheme is scientific and feasible
Scientificity and feasibility are inseparable. Here, the focus is on the design of the main line.
First, the issues of gravity flow and the difficulty of individual projects. The challenge for the "Hongqi River" main line is how to divert water from the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to the vast northwestern region by "gravity flow" while ensuring project feasibility.
China's terrain generally consists of three steps, with the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the first step. Therefore, from a topographical perspective, it is inevitable to find a surrounding route with gradually decreasing elevations around the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; after crossing the Yellow River, our designed elevation is located on the piedmont plains of the Qilian and Kunlun Mountains, where the terrain is flat, making it relatively easy to find a route with gradually decreasing elevation.
Of course, the periphery of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is not a regular slope. In particular, the edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau south of the Yellow River, which the route passes through, is mostly high mountains and deep valleys. Therefore, we adopted a combination of tunnels and reservoirs for water conveyance to ensure uniform elevation reduction along the route.
It is worth noting that the length of a single tunnel section is one of the important limiting factors for the difficulty of individual projects. To shorten the tunnel length as much as possible while ensuring "full gravity flow," the only way is to utilize the many valleys at the edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and route around the plateau's edge.
"Full gravity flow" is the most important feature of the "Hongqi River," and ensuring that the construction difficulty of all individual projects is lower than that of existing cases is an important principle of the "Hongqi River" design. Together, they form the foundation of the entire scheme. Therefore, at the beginning of route selection, we used surveying and mapping, remote sensing, and geographic information systems as basic tools, based on multiple independent data sources, to conduct detailed comparisons and multiple confirmations of the route.
Second, after thorough research on the terrain, a detailed geological analysis was conducted. The geological conditions at the southeastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are complex, with possible earthquakes, geothermal activity, coal measures, faults, fractures, collapses, landslides, etc. Some of these may affect construction, while others may affect stable operation. Based on the analysis of each section's specific conditions, we classified and graded various threats and made specific adjustments to the route. At the same time, we conducted extensive research and analysis on the ability of existing tunnels and reservoirs in the relevant areas to cope with geological disasters. Overall, it is impossible to completely avoid geological problems, but they can be addressed through both engineering design and operational management.
On this basis, the "Hongqi River" has many other advantages. For example, the water source area has abundant water, and it connects multiple river basins, etc. These will be detailed when discussing the significance, which is also an important support for its scientificity and rationality.
Overall, although the "Hongqi River" project is huge as a system, it can be divided into individual projects that can be completed with existing technical capabilities.
Next, let's discuss the economic scientificity and feasibility.
Historically, major national livelihood projects and strategic projects have not been judged simply by short-term economic profitability or cost recovery. Therefore, the economic analysis of the "Hongqi River" should also be viewed from a broader perspective:
From an investment perspective, the preliminary estimate for the "Hongqi River" project is about 4 trillion yuan, which is acceptable given China's current economic scale;
From a water price perspective, comprehensive analysis suggests that the cost of diverted water is about 0.7-1.3 yuan per cubic meter, and the comprehensive cost of water supply to end users is about 0.9-1.5 yuan per cubic meter. It is expected that the agricultural water price will be below 0.5 yuan per cubic meter. Considering the additional benefits of navigation and power generation to further share the water supply cost, there is room for further reduction in water prices.
II. The "Hongqi River" Western Water Diversion Project is necessary and urgent
Overall, urgency is included in necessity. Here, I will first discuss the major necessity, and then separately emphasize the urgency.
(1) Development's huge demand for resources and space requires the "Hongqi River." With China's rapid economic and social development, existing land, water, and ecological environment are increasingly unable to meet development needs, and the contradiction between supply and demand is becoming increasingly serious. There is an urgent need to find a new outlet. Our country's development needs are rigid. Seeking solutions solely based on the current stock of available water and land resources makes it almost impossible to balance supply and demand. We must pay attention to solving the incremental problem, that is, increasing available water and land resources.
The "Hongqi River" Western Water Diversion Scheme was born in this context. With the resolution of water shortages in the northwest, improvement of the ecological environment, and construction of the "Hongqi River" waterway, China will "gain" more usable space. The northwestern region will usher in historic development, the squeezed development space in the eastern region will find new outlets, and the severe imbalance between eastern and western development will be improved.
(2) Scientific management and control of China's water systems for the benefit of the Chinese nation requires the "Hongqi River." The "Hongqi River" will connect the rivers of the southwest, the Yangtze River Basin, the Yellow River Basin, and the rivers of the northwest, and radiate influence to the Huai River Basin, Hai River Basin, and Liao River Basin. It will serve multiple functions such as ecology, water supply, flood control, navigation, and power generation, becoming important infrastructure for drought and flood regulation and benefiting people in all river basins. It will powerfully improve the basic reality of mismatched water and soil resources in China and is a brilliant stroke in laying the foundation for a complete Chinese water system.
(3) Improving ecology and the living and development environment requires the "Hongqi River." As large amounts of clean water continuously flow to the northwest, with benefits accumulating over the years, it will have a profound impact on desertification control and local climate improvement. At the same time, the ecological security of North China, western Liaoning, and other areas radiated by the "Hongqi River" will also be significantly improved.
(4) Improving agriculture, developing agriculture, and ensuring food security require the "Hongqi River." The "Hongqi River" will ensure China's food security from two aspects: developing high-quality super irrigation districts and improving the severe water shortage in the northern plains. For example, after the "Hongqi River" is completed, in the Hexi Corridor section of the main stream and the area south of the Yellow River covered by the "Hongyan River" branch, relying on local existing social, agricultural, and natural conditions, over 100 million mu of irrigation districts will be built to develop large-scale, modern, water-saving, and efficient agriculture.
(5) Winning the battle against poverty requires the "Hongqi River." The route of the "Hongqi River" is designed to align with many deeply impoverished areas in China, where poverty is mainly due to inherent deficiencies in natural conditions and geographical location. Therefore, the construction of the "Hongqi River" itself and future adjustments in water and soil resource matching will provide broader development space and better natural conditions for poverty alleviation.
(6) Western development requires the "Hongqi River." As future ecological advantages transform into economic advantages, and with active population mobility and effective improvement of social, cultural, and human environments, it will powerfully promote the formation of a new pattern in western development.
(7) National unity and border stability require the "Hongqi River." Relying on the "Chunfeng River" and the southern Xinjiang section of the "Hongqi River" main stream, the development level of Hotan, Kashgar, and Hami can be greatly improved. At the same time, an ecological corridor of thousands of kilometers will be formed, connecting points into lines and lines into areas, building a beautiful homeland with comprehensive ecological, economic, and social development, and promoting population mobility and ethnic exchange.
(8) The "Belt and Road" requires the "Hongqi River." With the formation of a high-quality ecological, cultural, economic, and technological environment, supported by global informatization and modern logistics, the northwestern region will become an important window linking Central Asia, West Asia, and even Europe, and an important fulcrum of the "Belt and Road."
(9) Supply-side structural reform requires the "Hongqi River." The "Hongqi River" will gather the wisdom of the entire nation and be built to the highest standards, thereby greatly driving the development of related regions and upstream and downstream industries, truly interpreting supply-side structural reform in the tide of great construction.
Now, let me emphasize the urgency, which includes four aspects: living environment, water resources, border stability, and food security.
(1) Protection of the living environment urgently needs such a project. Ecological problems such as desertification in the northwest are extremely complex and generally have the potential to worsen. Once a certain critical point is crossed, triggering rapid and irreversible deterioration, there may be no chance for remedy. The trends of nature do not change according to human will. As long as the overall "natural" trend may be "deteriorating" for humanity, we cannot let it develop unchecked. "Make a decision when one must, or suffer the consequences." In the long history of human development, a few years are just a blink of an eye. Opportunities are fleeting, and we cannot afford to hesitate. After the "Hongqi River" is implemented, it can become an important weapon for us to intervene in the macro-ecology and an important magic weapon to protect ourselves in the interaction between humans and nature.
(2) Protection of future strategic resource—water resources—urgently needs such a project. Water is the most important strategic resource of the 21st century. China's development and utilization rate of water resources in rivers such as the Yarlung Zangbo River that flow out of the southwest region is extremely low. If we miss the historical opportunity, we will be very passive. The time window is short, and we must not be negligent.
(3) Long-term stability and security of border areas urgently need such a project. From a geographical perspective, the vast western region's sparse population, economic backwardness, and cultural isolation have all affected regional stability to some extent. The "Hongqi River" can serve as a practical lever. In its construction and later development, it will inevitably play a role as a bond to maintain connections between regions and unite people of all ethnic groups materially and spiritually, becoming the stabilizing anchor for the northwest and southwest.
(4) Ensuring food security urgently needs such a project. Although China has basically solved the problem of food and clothing for over 30 years, the memory of hunger cannot be erased. We must be prepared for danger in times of peace and take preventive measures. China lacks arable land resources and has a large population. Food security partly depends on water conservancy construction in recent decades and international food trade. Moreover, long-term academic research generally believes that future droughts in northern China will generally worsen and will significantly affect food production. It should be noted that once consecutive years of severe droughts and floods occur, making existing water conservancy projects unable to meet requirements, or major problems arise in international food trade, the possibility of hunger reappearing still exists. The construction of the "Hongqi River" will be, within the foreseeable scope, the most important measure for China to effectively increase the amount of arable land and improve the food security guarantee rate on a national scale.