"The center of the world will shift from the US to Asia." "China will usher in a new era of glory."—Renowned investor Rogers spoke in Shanghai last weekend, once again expressing confidence in China's economic development.
Regarding the Chinese stock market's lackluster performance in recent years, Rogers said that the Chinese stock market has not performed as well as China's economic development, mainly because the stock market is restricted and foreigners cannot invest directly in it. He said: "The Chinese stock market will still win in the future. So I hope to buy Chinese stocks and leave them to my children."
"I have already bought many RMB assets"
Rogers made these remarks at the 18th Boya CEO Forum, co-hosted by Boya CEO Business School and the Senior Training Center of Peking University's School of Electronics Engineering and Computer Science. In his speech, he reiterated his long-held view that the 20th century was America's century and the 21st century is China's century. "The US is currently the world's largest economy. But it also has the highest debt in the world, and the debt figure is increasing every day. So I am not very optimistic about America's future. That is why we are moving to Asia and having our children learn Chinese. At the same time, we are also considering moving to Shanghai," he said.
Rogers said China will profoundly influence the world's future. The US may never be able to pay off its debt, or at least cannot pay off all its debt in US dollars. So the US will keep printing money, meaning the US dollar will continue to depreciate. All parties will be very worried about the dollar's prospects, and some countries have already begun to change the composition of their foreign exchange reserves. They should do so.
"I have already bought many RMB assets. Currently, I still hold more US dollar assets than RMB assets, because I believe there will be market turbulence in the next two or three years, and many people will still seek the US dollar as a last safe haven. Since people think so, if I have US dollars, I can sell them then. I hope that by then the RMB will be fully liberalized, so I can buy a large amount of RMB assets," Rogers said. If the future global reserve currency is not the US dollar, "I think the RMB will be a very strong alternative reserve currency, and in the future the RMB will replace the US dollar."
Bullish on railways and other sectors
Rogers first invested in Chinese stocks in 1999. "We were traveling in China at the time, and I opened an account in Shanghai. At that time I could only buy B-shares, and I bought a lot of B-shares. In 2005, I bought a large amount of RMB assets again. I will not sell these investments; I plan to leave them to my children," he said. Selling Chinese stocks now would be like selling US stocks in the 1940s; looking back in another 80 years, one would feel that selling US stocks then was foolish. "China will also encounter crises, but after the crises, the Chinese stock market will still win."
Rogers believes that the Chinese stock market's performance is far worse than China's economic development, mainly because the stock market is restricted and it is difficult for foreigners to invest directly in it. At the same time, Chinese people are also not yet able to invest directly overseas. "I hope the Chinese government will make changes in this regard. Now Alibaba is listed in New York. Because if it were listed on the Chinese A-share market, it could only face a limited number of investors. If listed in Hong Kong or New York, it could face many international investors. So I hope the Chinese government can open up the Chinese market, which would be beneficial to both Chinese companies and Chinese investors."
Regarding the appreciation of the RMB, Rogers said he is not worried. "The Japanese yen began to rise sixty years ago, but it is still competitive today." However, he expressed some concern about China's government debt, trust debt, shadow banking, and other issues.
As for the direction of Chinese stock investments, Rogers listed railways, pharmaceuticals, elderly care, finance, especially pollution control, tourism, agriculture, and commodities and raw materials. "I am optimistic about most areas, except real estate," Rogers said.
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