In a survey on Langfang housing prices conducted by a website, 75% of participants believed "excessive speculation, housing prices should not be so exaggerated." As for future price trends, 38% of respondents thought "prices will fall later, this is just temporary madness." Some industry insiders also judge that the rise in Langfang housing prices is driven more by investment and speculation, and once a downward adjustment occurs, the magnitude will be large. Location is a double-edged sword; the thoroughfare between Beijing and Tianjin has always been the key to Langfang's sustained housing price increases in recent years. Not long ago, the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei heated up the Langfang property market, but the recent decline in Beijing housing prices has also made Langfang's real estate market feel a chill. However, the reporter's visits found that the location advantage, as an irreplaceable positive, still brings strong confidence to Langfang's property market. After all, a subway to Langfang has already driven the city's housing prices up for several years.

　　Review

　　Institutional data shows: Langfang housing prices rose 18.2% last year

　　The China Index Academy's 100-city housing price index system has comprehensive statistics on Langfang housing prices. Looking back at the 2013 Langfang housing price trend, from the curve, there was almost no fluctuation, but a steep 45-degree straight line upward, which means Langfang housing prices last year showed a one-way upward trend.

　　Historical data records that in December 2012, the sample average price of new residential housing in Langfang was 6,155 yuan/square meter. By December 2013, this average price had risen to 7,275 yuan/square meter, with an annual increase of 18.2%.

　　Taking a longer time frame, in fact, in May 2011, affected by the continuous impact of real estate regulation policies, Langfang housing prices touched a stage high of around 6,890 yuan, then began a decline journey lasting a year and a half. By the lowest point in 2012, the average price per square meter had once fallen by 700 yuan.

　　But the 2013 round of increase was somewhat similar to the trajectory of Beijing housing prices. When explaining the rise and fall of Langfang's property market, location advantage is an eternal theme, and there is endless connection with Beijing. In the year following Beijing's housing price increase, Langfang housing prices not only recovered the "lost territory" of the previous year and a half of decline in just half a year, but also broke through the 7,000 yuan mark in one go. In actual market prices, projects priced above 9,000 yuan and 10,000 yuan appeared in large numbers in the second half of 2013.

　　Visits

　　Beijing property market "catches a cold," Langfang "sneezes"

　　On May 11, moderate rain fell in many parts of North China, temperatures dropped sharply, and those with weak constitutions were prone to catching colds.

　　In the past month, Beijing's property market could be said to have caught a small "cold."

　　According to statistics from the Lianjia Real Estate Market Research Department, during the 2014 May Day holiday, the number of online signings for second-hand residential properties in Beijing was only 31 units, down 82% from the same period last year, the lowest in nearly six years. In addition, the total transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in Beijing in April was only 7,616 units, the lowest level in nearly 11 months (excluding the Spring Festival month). From the housing price index monitored by Lianjia Real Estate, since January, the listing prices of second-hand homes in Beijing have continued to decline. Among them, the decline was largest in April at 2.2%, and the proportion of price-reduced listings gradually expanded. In April, 87% of listings had their asking prices reduced.

　　Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Centaline Property, said that compared with previous years, the signs of a late spring cold snap in the 2014 property market are obvious. Beijing's property market is gradually shifting from panic buying in 2013 to panic waiting, with buyers afraid of entering at the high point. Judging from the pricing of new residential projects for rigid demand in March and April, the game between real estate companies and customers has subtly changed.

　　In an interview, Yang Le, an industry insider familiar with the Beijing real estate market, said that besides the reversal of supply and demand and the excessively rapid rise in housing prices earlier, another important reason for the price cuts in Beijing projects is the massive release of self-occupied commercial housing onto the market. Since the end of last year, 39,400 units of self-occupied commercial housing have been launched. Nearly 438,000 households participated in the lottery for the second batch of applications. According to the plan, another 30,000 units will be launched in the second half of this year, satisfying rigid demand to a certain extent, and the previously inflated housing prices have begun to show signs of decline.

　　Dozens of kilometers away, Langfang also feels a bit of chill. A subway from Beijing to Langfang has become one of the concepts hotly speculated in Langfang's property market for years. The tremors in Beijing's property market will inevitably trigger a chain reaction in the Langfang market.

　　At a property sales center in Anci District, due to two consecutive days of rain, although it was the weekend, few customers came to view homes. "5 minutes' walk to the high-speed rail station, 20 minutes direct to Beijing, 40 minutes and you're strolling in Xidan, Wangfujing, Guomao... Living in Langfang, you make Beijingers envious!" Just looking at the advertising slogan on the flyer, it indeed makes homebuyers excited. The salesperson said that the current average price of the project is about 7,400 yuan, "lower than our originally expected opening price, a very rare opportunity, because only 30% of the project is left for selection." "In May we still have new preferential policies, with corresponding discounts for full payment and loans. If you book now, it's very suitable." The salesperson told the reporter that in March the project sold very fast, with dozens of reservations every day. Recently, the number of visiting customers has decreased a lot, but she denied that this is related to the signs of possible price declines. "It's hard for Langfang housing prices to fall significantly. After all, the advantages are there, and now the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is about to have substantive actions. Compared with Beijing and Tianjin, especially Beijing, the down payment for a home in Beijing can buy a 90-square-meter two-bedroom in Langfang. Why not buy in Langfang?"

　　To support this view, the salesperson also specifically told the reporter that a couple of days ago she had just received a client from Beijing, a Zhejiang native doing business in Beijing, who was attracted by Langfang's transportation advantages and future development prospects.

　　Yanjiao, known as only a 20-minute drive from Beijing, feels the chill even more clearly. "Last year, some projects had a highest price of nearly 20,000 yuan, now it has directly dropped to about 12,000 yuan." Yang Le told the reporter that affected by fluctuations in Beijing housing prices, Yanjiao housing prices reacted more strongly than those in Langfang city proper. "In fact, since the end of last year, the speed of housing price increases in Yanjiao has slowed down, and after reaching a high point in January, it began to decline."

　　A community project phase 2 in Yanjiao, originally built for young Beijing drifters, had a quoted price of up to 11,000 yuan/square meter at the end of last year, and now the quote is 9,300 yuan/square meter. Yao Baowen, who has been engaged in real estate sales in Yanjiao for more than three years, told the reporter that Yanjiao housing prices closely follow Tongzhou, and in actual sales the decline in quoted prices may be in units of a thousand yuan, showing that the "inflated" component is relatively large.

　　Trend

　　Location advantage remains a strong support for housing prices

　　"Compared with March, there are many fewer customers, but out-of-town homebuyers from Beijing, Tianjin and other surrounding areas still account for about 30%." At a project sales office by Guangyang Road in the northwest of Langfang city, salesperson Xiao Wu told the reporter that although customer visits are not as good as in the previous two months, the project's prices have not been greatly affected by Beijing.

　　The reporter then checked the price changes of this project in detail on a local home-buying website and found that the project's quoted price in September 2013 was as high as 9,500 yuan/square meter, and by January this year, the quote had dropped to 7,900 yuan/square meter. In April, the project's quote returned to 8,500 yuan/square meter.

　　Regarding such price fluctuations, Xiao Wu said that in February and March this year, project sales grew very fast, one could say a small peak was reached, and prices rose accordingly. Currently, the project's average price is 8,698 yuan/square meter, with a 200 yuan/square meter discount for full payment. Moreover, in May, in order to accelerate the sales progress of the remaining 40% of the project, a new promotion was launched: pay 10,000 yuan to offset 20,000 yuan.

　　Regarding the reporter's concern about future housing price trends, Xiao Wu said there is absolutely no need to worry about a decline in Langfang housing prices. "Among the clients I receive, many are out-of-town clients with investment needs. They are very confident in Langfang's future housing prices. We are very close to Beijing's light rail and the new airport, very suitable for investment." "Beijing real estate tycoons all say housing prices are going to fall." The reporter asked, "I know who you mean. He did say housing prices might fall, but do you know that while they shout 'fall,' they are still acquiring land?" Facing the reporter's doubt, Xiao Wu decisively interrupted in the tone of a professional.

　　Reporter's Observation

　　Location is the eternal theme of Langfang's property market

　　Langfang's streets are always lined with green trees, making walking in summer refreshing. This time, walking on the national road to Yongqing, the reporter found that behind the dense roadside trees, construction sites of new projects appeared one after another. Compared with when the reporter passed this place a year ago, the Yongqing property market seems to have suddenly become lively.

　　For Langfang's property market, the surrounding counties and districts have more highlights than the city proper itself. For example, Yanjiao, which has long been famous for its housing prices, the ups and downs of Xianghe, and Gu'an and Yongqing, which have risen rapidly in the past two years.

　　A friend familiar with Gu'an housing prices did not exaggerate the madness of local housing prices, but simply listed four sets of data: in 2009, the average housing price in Gu'an was over 3,000 yuan; in 2010 it rose to 5,000 yuan; in 2013 it rose to 6,000 yuan; now good projects are all above 9,000 yuan/square meter.

　　Yongqing, benefiting from the possible relocation of Beijing's wholesale markets, has seen housing prices advance by leaps and bounds this year. A house that sold for 3,850 yuan/square meter in October 2013 has now sold for 6,700 yuan/square meter in May this year.

　　In fact, location is the eternal theme of Langfang's property market. From the projects the reporter visited, the impact of this property market chill on Langfang is more obvious in special areas like Yanjiao and Xianghe, where both volume and price have declined. But in Langfang city proper and some other counties and districts, housing prices remain relatively firm, continuing the rapid upward trend of the past year.

　　But location is also a double-edged sword. The gimmick of being adjacent to Beijing and Tianjin has driven Langfang housing prices up sharply for years. A subway from Beijing to Langfang has still not been seen, yet it has created many legends in the property market. As the aforementioned industry expert said, the rise in Langfang housing prices is driven more by investment and speculation. Location advantage cannot always be a selling point. The agglomeration of cities and industries and the development of functions are the actual foundation of housing prices, and the transition of existing location advantages from speculation to realization is even more important.