Vanke's Beijing (property) project "entered the market at a fair price," undoubtedly sending a "breakthrough" signal to the firm housing prices in first-tier cities. For those who intend to buy a home in Beijing out of necessity, this is undoubtedly good news.

 

　　At the same time, the acceleration of "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration" will help optimize urban functions and divert population. Yan Yuejin, a researcher at Shanghai (property) E-House Research Institute, said in an interview with the Daily Economic News (blog, Weibo) reporter that from the perspective of resource distribution, resources in areas surrounding Beijing will become increasingly attractive, thereby enhancing the population-attracting capacity of such areas.

 

　　Home purchase costs higher than last year

 

　　Although Beijing housing prices have shown a slight loosening, current home purchase costs have increased rather than decreased.

 

　　Statistics from the research department of Centaline Property show that the 15% discount on first-home mortgages in Beijing has basically disappeared, and many banks have even raised loan interest rates by 5%.

 

　　Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Centaline Property, calculated that for a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years, the monthly payment is 5,720 yuan at a 15% discount interest rate, while at a 1.05 times interest rate, the monthly payment is as high as 6,571 yuan, requiring about 300,000 yuan more in interest.

 

　　He said that based on a normal home purchase case in the Beijing market, a first-time buyer purchasing a home in the South Sixth Ring Road area, with a total price of 2 million yuan, a 30% down payment, a loan of 1.4 million yuan, and a 30-year loan term, the monthly payment will rise from 8,008 yuan at the 15% discount rate to 9,199 yuan at the benchmark rate plus 5%, "the increased interest over 30 years is as high as 430,000 yuan, equivalent to 21% of the 2 million yuan housing price."

 

　　According to interviews, due to the uncertainty of the first-tier housing market, many potential buyers have postponed their home purchase plans.

 

　　Yan Yuejin believes that from the real credit orientation of commercial banks, it is not that credit resources are scarce now, but that the interest rate requirements for credit have increased. For first-time buyers, this will undoubtedly increase the financial burden of buying a home or delay the timing of purchase. To some extent, the current policy of tightening credit will lead buyers to adjust their home purchase plans.

 

　　May cool Beijing housing prices

 

　　Li Shixiang, a deputy to the National People's Congress and executive vice mayor of Beijing, recently said that as the government expands the supply of affordable housing, Beijing housing prices will return to a reasonable and rational space. With the progress of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration, many people do not need to buy homes in surrounding areas and then commute to Beijing for work; they can completely live and work in Hebei.

 

　　Zhang Dawei analyzed that the main reason supporting the continued high operation of Beijing housing prices is the concentration of multiple centers in one place and sufficient demand. But if a certain part of functions flows out, there will be spillover in demand for Beijing.

 

　　Once functions are transferred, it will significantly affect Beijing housing prices. Most buyers purchase homes in Beijing because of its better social amenities and job opportunities. Once this advantage weakens, demand may shrink significantly. Once there is widespread wait-and-see due to credit and other factors, adjustments like those in 2008 and 2011 are not entirely impossible.

 

　　Fan Xiaochong, executive vice president of Sunshine 100 Real Estate Group, said in an interview with the Daily Economic News reporter that the acceleration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration will undoubtedly upgrade the functions of Beijing and surrounding areas. The high land cost in Beijing's core areas is a force driving up mid-to-high-end housing prices. But the downward force on housing prices has always existed. After transportation in surrounding areas of Beijing becomes convenient, first-time buyers will undoubtedly spill over in large numbers, which will lower the prices of first-time buyer projects.