2014 Agricultural Machinery Investment Barometer

2014-01-09 624 0人评论
      Slowing economic growth is forcing companies in the industry to transform and upgrade. The government will no longer boost GDP growth with short-term stimulus measures, pushing the economy toward a development model reliant on domestic demand. The government's future investment priorities will focus on information consumption, railways, shantytown renovation, urban infrastructure construction, energy conservation and environmental protection, and related industries will see notable improvement in investment. Combined with the fixed asset investment growth trends of downstream industries this year, we remain optimistic for 2014 about segments such as oil and gas equipment, industrial automation, energy-saving and environmental protection equipment, agricultural machinery, and municipal machinery, as well as traditional manufacturing enterprises actively transforming toward these emerging industries.

  Construction machinery industry: the sector is stabilizing, and listed companies' performance will bottom out and rebound. In the first three quarters, the industry's overall ROE was 7%, close to the 6% level at the bottom of the previous cycle in 2005. As industry revenue scale recovers in the future, listed companies' ROE levels will rebound, and the industry has momentum for valuation repair.

  Automation industry: robotics and logistics automation face long-term development opportunities. China's current economic environment is very similar to that of Japan in the 1980s, as industry transitions from the heavy chemical industry development stage to a stage of higher processing intensity and technology intensification. At present, China has only 25 robots per 10,000 workers, while in developed countries this indicator is generally above 50. Assuming that in the next five years China's robot usage density reaches 100 units per 10,000 workers, domestic robot sales would need to achieve a compound growth rate of 30% over the next five years.

  Oil and gas equipment: the supply-demand imbalance for natural gas is intensifying, and we are optimistic about market opportunities for upstream exploration and production equipment. As downstream natural gas application projects have been put into operation in concentrated fashion over the past two years, the domestic natural gas supply-demand gap has continued to widen, and China's conventional and unconventional natural gas will develop faster. In the next two years, domestic investment in upstream exploration and production equipment, oilfield services, and midstream pipeline gas transmission will continue to increase. Affected by strengthened expectations of natural gas price increases, enterprises in downstream natural gas application sectors will come under pressure in the short term.

  Agricultural machinery: agricultural production intensification will further raise the mechanization rate. With the deepening of rural reform (land transfer), especially the rise of specialized agricultural machinery cooperatives and large agricultural machinery households, agricultural mechanization and the development of agricultural socialized services will accelerate. We are optimistic about large agricultural machinery leaders with industrial chain integration capabilities.

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