Lü Ying said that the previously extensive market demand will gradually be replaced by rational emerging market demand. Now, market segmentation demand is increasing, and requirements for product performance are rising. Large-tonnage cranes, large-tonnage truck-mounted cranes, rotary drilling rigs, and others all have certain substitution effects on traditional products and can change downstream users' usage habits. The ability to grasp the future market will determine enterprises' room for survival.
Lü Ying stated that the characteristics of the industry determine that the engineering machinery industry lags slightly behind the pace of national economic improvement, while the previous period of rapid development in engineering machinery overdrew the market. In the future, the increase or decrease range of the engineering machinery industry will fluctuate within a relatively small range. For example, the monthly sales volume of excavators in China will fluctuate slightly between 10,000 and 20,000 units in the future, without major ups and downs, which is consistent with the situation in most countries internationally.
Lü Ying stated that the trend of the engineering machinery industry this year has been improving month by month. According to rough statistics, by October, the cumulative year-on-year decline in excavator sales this year had fallen below 6%, loader sales had been growing positively for several months, and road roller sales had the largest increase this year due to the excessively sluggish market last year, with cumulative sales through October increasing by about 20% year-on-year. It is certain that the engineering machinery market is recovering.
A securities analyst in Beijing also made a similar judgment on the machinery industry, believing that opportunities in highly cyclical sub-sectors of the machinery industry are not strong, while sub-industries with growth potential will experience relatively large growth.
Some securities research reports show that the performance of listed companies in the machinery industry continued to be sluggish this year. In the first three quarters of 2013, listed companies in the machinery industry achieved total operating revenue of 632.464 billion yuan, down 5.85% year-on-year. Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, XGMA, and Shantui all exercised strict expense control in the third quarter. The combined ROE (return on equity) of the six companies in their 2013 third-quarter reports was 7.77%, a sharp year-on-year decline, and their profitability also declined somewhat.
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